
Baltimore Orioles
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Tampa Bay Rays
+105O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-125
(-110/-110)-125
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Kyle Bradish – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)With 6 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Kyle Bradish will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Colton Cowser – Over/Under Total BasesColton Cowser’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 90.8-mph EV last year has fallen to 86.1-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Baltimore Orioles have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler O’Neill, Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-125)The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among every team in action today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Jonny Deluca – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.221) implies that Jonny DeLuca has been lucky since the start of last season with his .294 actual batting average.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Tampa Bay Rays – 2H MoneylineThe Tampa Bay Rays bullpen profiles as the worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+175)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+13.95 Units / 64% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 40 away games (+7.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- Samuel Basallo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)Samuel Basallo has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
