Discover the Nationals vs Astros Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Monday, July 28th, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Washington Nationals on July 28, 2025, this interleague matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions. The Astros sit comfortably with a record of 60-46, showcasing their strong play this season. Meanwhile, the Nationals are struggling at 43-62, marking a disappointing year. In their last outing, the Astros notched a victory, further solidifying their status as a contender, while the Nationals continue to fight through a tough stretch.

Astros ace Framber Valdez is projected to take the mound, boasting an impressive 11-4 record and a stellar ERA of 2.67. Valdez, ranked as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been a key factor in the Astros’ success. He projects to pitch 6.2 innings today while allowing just 2.1 earned runs and striking out 6.5 batters on average. However, his projections indicate he may have benefited from some luck this season, as both his SIERA and xERA are higher than his current ERA.

On the other side, the Nationals will send Brad Lord to the mound. With a record of 2-5 and an ERA of 3.39, Lord’s performance has been average at best. He projects to pitch only 4.4 innings, allowing 1.9 earned runs while striking out just 3.9 batters. His higher xERA of 4.62 suggests that he may struggle against a potent Astros lineup.

Offensively, the Astros rank 2nd in MLB in team batting average, showcasing their ability to hit consistently. The Nationals, while ranking 7th in stolen bases, find themselves 22nd in overall offensive rankings, making it difficult to keep pace with Houston’s high-octane offense. With an implied team total of 4.47 runs for the Astros compared to the Nationals’ low 3.03, the Astros are favored heavily in this contest, making them a solid pick for bettors looking to capitalize on their current form.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Brad Lord – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Bradley Lord has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 67.4% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Riley Adams – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Riley Adams has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 10.6% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-245)
  In his previous game started, Framber Valdez was rolling and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Taylor Trammell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Taylor Trammell has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96.4-mph to 99.9-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+12.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+9.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• Zack Short – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1200/-6000)
  Zack Short has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+17.50 Units / 350% ROI)