Discover the Game Time for Tigers vs Blue Jays – Sunday July 21, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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Toronto Blue Jays

As we approach the third game of the series between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Detroit Tigers on July 21, 2024, fans and bettors alike are keeping a close eye on the matchup. The Blue Jays, struggling with a 44-54 record, face the Tigers, who are treading water with a 49-50 record. Playing at Rogers Centre, this American League clash gives Toronto a slight advantage as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 58%.

On the mound, the Blue Jays are set to start Kevin Gausman, who holds a 7-8 record and a 4.50 ERA over 19 starts. Despite these numbers, Gausman’s 3.71 xFIP, as per the leading MLB projection system THE BAT X, suggests he’s been unlucky and might be poised for better performances ahead. Gausman is ranked the 62nd best pitcher out of approximately 350, making him above average. He is projected to pitch 6.0 innings, allow 2.4 earned runs, and strike out 6.6 batters, all solid indicators for Toronto.

On the other side, the Tigers will start Keider Montero, who has struggled through five starts with a 1-2 record and a 5.47 ERA. THE BAT X projects Montero to improve slightly with a 4.36 xFIP, but he remains one of the worst pitchers in MLB. Today, he’s expected to pitch only 4.6 innings, giving up 2.8 earned runs and striking out 3.8 batters.

Offensively, both teams have had their issues. The Tigers’ offense ranks 25th in MLB and 24th in team batting average, while the Blue Jays aren’t much better, ranking 22nd in offense and 20th in team batting average. However, Toronto has the home-field advantage and a better starting pitcher on the mound, which could be decisive.

The Blue Jays’ bullpen is ranked 21st, while the Tigers’ bullpen sits at an average 16th, suggesting that if the game is close late, Detroit might have a slight edge. However, with the Blue Jays projected to score 4.35 runs compared to the Tigers’ 3.65 runs, bettors might lean towards Toronto maintaining their status as favorites.

As the game unfolds, keep an eye on the starting pitchers’ performances and whether the Blue Jays’ offense can capitalize on facing one of MLB’s worst starters. Given the projections, Toronto looks to have the upper hand in this critical series finale.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Keider Montero has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -9.6 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Gio Urshela – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Gio Urshela has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Zach McKinstry hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Kevin Gausman’s higher usage rate of his fastball this season (59.3 vs. 50.8% last year) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  There has been a decrease in Daulton Varsho’s average exit velocity this year, from 87.8 mph last year to 85.1 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-165)
  The Toronto Blue Jays projected lineup projects as the 4th-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+11.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (+145)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.85 Units / 68% ROI)
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.15 Units / 41% ROI)