Discover the Game Time for Padres vs Mariners – Tuesday September 10, 2024

San Diego Padres

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners host the San Diego Padres on September 10, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Mariners, with a record of 73-71, are having an average season, while the Padres are enjoying a solid campaign at 81-64. This matchup carries weight as it marks the beginning of a series between these two clubs, and both will be looking to capitalize on the opportunity.

In their last outing, the Mariners triumphed over the St. Louis Cardinals, winning decisively 10-4, showcasing their offensive potential. Meanwhile, the Padres faltered against the San Francisco Giants, losing a tight contest 7-6. This recent performance sets the stage for an intriguing battle, especially with the Mariners projected to start George Kirby, who ranks as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Kirby has shown promise this season, with a 3.61 ERA and a solid outing in his last start, where he pitched 6 innings with 2 earned runs and 9 strikeouts.

Conversely, the Padres will counter with Yu Darvish, who ranks 61st among starting pitchers. Although Darvish has a respectable 3.51 ERA, he struggled in his last start, lasting only 3 innings and allowing 3 earned runs. This could be a critical factor, especially given the Mariners’ offensive struggles, ranking 24th in MLB this season. However, their recent win might inject some confidence into their lineup.

Interestingly, the projections suggest a close game, with the Mariners having a low implied team total of 3.66 runs, while the Padres sit even lower at 3.34 runs. This aligns with the Game Total set at a low 7.0 runs. Overall, while both teams face challenges, the Mariners could find a way to leverage their recent momentum against a struggling Padres squad.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Yu Darvish – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Over his last 3 games started, Yu Darvish has produced a significant rise in his fastball spin rate: from 2311 rpm over the whole season to 2404 rpm recently.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Xander Bogaerts has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (85% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 18.4% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-195/+150)
  Tallying 17.3 outs per start this year on average, George Kirby ranks in the 80th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Luke Raley has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.7-mph to 95.5-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 44 games at home (+9.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 80 games (+12.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+12.10 Units / 55% ROI)