Discover the Game Time for Orioles vs Padres – Monday September 01, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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San Diego Padres

On September 1, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Baltimore Orioles at Petco Park in a notable Interleague matchup. The Padres are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 76-61, while the Orioles are struggling at 61-76. Both teams will be looking to improve their standings, but only one appears poised to capitalize on the matchup.

The Padres are projected to start Dylan Cease, who has had a challenging season with a 6-11 record and a below-average ERA of 4.82. Despite these struggles, Cease ranks as the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, indicating his potential to perform better than his results suggest. Moreover, he projects to allow an average of 2.1 earned runs and strike out 7.6 batters today, showcasing his ability to control the game, especially against a low-walk Orioles offense that ranks among the least patient in MLB.

On the other side, Kyle Bradish will take the mound for the Orioles. Although he has an excellent ERA of 3.00, he has only started one game this season and comes into this matchup with a Win/Loss record of 0-1. Bradish’s projection indicates he may struggle today, with a projected 4.9 innings pitched and allowing 2.4 earned runs on average, coupled with a high number of hits allowed.

The Padres’ offense ranks 15th overall this season but stands out with a solid team batting average, ranking 8th in MLB. In contrast, the Orioles’ offense has been less effective, ranking 22nd in batting average. The Padres also boast the top-ranked bullpen in the league, further bolstering their position as the betting favorites with a moneyline of -160.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Kyle Bradish – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Kyle Bradish has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an -9.6 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Ryan Mountcastle has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 97-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have 6 bats in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Ramon Laureano has been lucky this year, posting a .384 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .333 — a .051 disparity.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 123 games (+10.30 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 67 away games (+14.83 Units / 20% ROI)
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.85 Units / 37% ROI)