Discover the Game Time for Orioles vs Padres – Monday September 01, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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San Diego Padres

On September 1, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Baltimore Orioles at Petco Park in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Padres, currently 76-61, are enjoying a strong season, while the Orioles sit at 61-76 and have struggled mightily. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses, with the Padres falling to the New York Yankees 7-2 and the Orioles losing 13-2 to the Tampa Bay Rays in their last outings.

In this matchup, the Padres will send Dylan Cease to the mound, who, despite his 6-11 record and a below-average ERA of 4.82, is still ranked as the 31st best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Cease’s underlying numbers are promising, as his 3.55 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky this season. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing around 2.0 earned runs while striking out an impressive 7.4 batters. However, Cease tends to struggle with walks, boasting a high 10.0 BB%.

On the other side, Kyle Bradish is expected to start for the Orioles. He has had a much shorter stint this season, only starting one game, but his 3.00 ERA is excellent. Bradish’s projected numbers reveal potential challenges, with an average projection of 5.0 innings pitched and 2.2 earned runs allowed. However, his tendency to generate strikeouts (47.6 K%) faces a Padres offense that has had the 3rd least strikeouts in MLB.

The Padres’ offense ranks 15th overall but is notably weak in power, sitting 29th in home runs this season. This could benefit Bradish, a flyball pitcher, as the Padres might struggle to capitalize on his tendencies. The game total sits at a low 7.5 runs, signaling a potentially tight contest. San Diego is a favorite with a moneyline of -165, reflecting confidence in their chances to bounce back from their recent loss and reinforce their position in the playoff race.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Kyle Bradish – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Kyle Bradish has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an -9.6 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Emmanuel Rivera – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Emmanuel Rivera’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 92.2-mph figure last season has dropped to 86.1-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  Dylan Cease has been unlucky this year, putting up a 4.82 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 3.71 — a 1.11 disparity.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Ramon Laureano has been lucky this year, posting a .384 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .333 — a .051 disparity.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 123 games (+10.30 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 67 away games (+14.83 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)
  Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.45 Units / 66% ROI)