Discover the Game Time for Orioles vs Mariners – Tuesday June 03, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on June 3, 2025, they enter the matchup in solid form, riding a wave of momentum following a recent no-hitter from their pitching staff. The Mariners, currently holding a record of 32-26, are well-positioned in the American League, while the Orioles, at 22-36, are struggling significantly this season.

In this first game of the series, Seattle will send George Kirby to the mound. Although Kirby has had a rough start to the season with an 0-2 record and a concerning ERA of 11.42, the projections suggest that he may be due for a turnaround given his 4.45 xFIP, indicating some bad luck. He’s expected to pitch around 5.9 innings while allowing approximately 2.2 earned runs, which could provide a boost against Baltimore’s struggling offense.

On the other side, the Orioles will counter with Tomoyuki Sugano, who has been more effective this season with a 4-3 record and a stellar ERA of 3.23. However, his 4.36 xFIP suggests he might be living on borrowed time. Sugano’s ability to limit walks (3.9 BB%) could play a crucial role against a Mariners lineup that ranks 4th in MLB for walks drawn.

Offensively, the Mariners rank 11th overall, with a particularly strong showing in home runs (6th) and stolen bases (5th), while the Orioles rank 23rd in both team batting average and overall offense. This disparity may give Seattle an edge, especially with their best hitter recently posting impressive stats, including 6 home runs over the past week.

The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a tightly contested battle. With the Mariners favored at -160, they appear to have the upper hand, and their potent offense could exploit any weaknesses in Sugano’s performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Tomoyuki Sugano didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out in his last game started and posted 1 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Ramon Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Ramon Urias has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Baltimore Orioles have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  George Kirby is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in T-Mobile Park — the #8 HR venue among all stadiums — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  J.P. Crawford has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 79.6-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 10.2% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners ranks them as the #5 offense in Major League Baseball this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 17 games at home (+10.90 Units / 59% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games (+9.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Cal Raleigh has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+6.65 Units / 28% ROI)