Discover the Game Time for Nationals vs Dodgers – Saturday June 21, 2025

Washington Nationals

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Washington Nationals on June 21, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup as the Dodgers look to continue their strong season. Currently, the Dodgers sit atop the National League with a record of 47-30, while the Nationals struggle at 31-45. In their previous game on June 20, the Dodgers edged out the Nationals 6-5, further solidifying their status as one of the league’s elite teams.

Dustin May, projected to take the mound for the Dodgers, has been an above-average pitcher this season, ranking as the 76th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Although May’s ERA sits at 4.46, he showcases solid strikeout potential, albeit with a high walk rate of 9.5%. His most recent outing saw him pitch 6 innings, allowing 3 earned runs, which marked an uneventful start by his standards.

On the other hand, Jake Irvin will pitch for the Nationals. Though Irvin’s Win/Loss record is a respectable 5-3, his 4.23 ERA belies his underlying struggles, as his xERA of 5.25 suggests he may have been fortunate so far this season. Irvin projects poorly for today’s game, with an expected 3.8 earned runs over approximately 4.9 innings.

The Dodgers’ offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 1st in MLB in runs scored and home runs, which bodes poorly for Irvin. Meanwhile, the Nationals’ offense ranks 22nd, and they will need to find a way to capitalize on any mistakes by May to stay competitive. With the Dodgers heavily favored at -275, their projected team total of 6.18 runs illustrates the gap in talent between these two squads. This matchup shapes up to be another challenge for the struggling Nationals against a powerhouse Dodgers team.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jake Irvin has used his secondary pitches 7.9% more often this year (49.6%) than he did last season (41.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Josh Bell generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Dustin May.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Luis Garcia Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-275)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Over the last 7 days, Freddie Freeman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-275)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense projects as the strongest on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+10.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 60 games (+11.92 Units / 17% ROI)
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+125/-160)
  James Wood has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.80 Units / 28% ROI)