Discover the Game Time for Blue Jays vs Royals – Sunday September 21, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on September 21, 2025, the stakes remain high in this contest between two teams with contrasting seasons. The Blue Jays, at 89-66, are in good form and battling for a top position, while the Royals sit at 78-77, marking an average season. In their last matchup, the Royals edged out the Blue Jays with a narrow 2-1 victory, adding a layer of intrigue heading into this third game of the series.

The matchup features Royals’ right-hander Michael Wacha, who has had a rough go of it lately. In his last start on September 16, Wacha allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 innings, raising concerns about his form as he enters this game. He holds a 3.79 ERA this season, which is decent, but his 4.58 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate and could struggle moving forward. Wacha is projected to pitch 4.3 innings today, allowing around 2.2 earned runs and striking out just 3 batters, which could be problematic against a potent Blue Jays offense.

On the other side, Toronto will counter with Trey Yesavage, who has been sensational in his only start this year, posting an impressive 1.80 ERA. Yesavage’s projections show he is likely to pitch 4.3 innings while allowing 2.0 earned runs with a strikeout rate below average at 4.3. However, his high groundball rate of 67% could play well against a Royals lineup that ranks 25th in home runs this season.

With the Blue Jays’ offense ranked 3rd in MLB and featuring players with strong recent performances, they are projected to score 4.35 runs, slightly higher than the Royals’ average of 4.15. Given these dynamics, Toronto appears to have the upper hand, particularly if Wacha’s struggles continue to plague him on the mound.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Trey Yesavage – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  As a result of his large reverse platoon split, Trey Yesavage should be in good shape going up against 6 bats in the projected offense of opposing handedness in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Andres Gimenez has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86-mph dropping to 80.6-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (20.3 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone team of batters of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Michael Wacha’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this year (92.5 mph) below where it was last season (93.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Jac Caglianone has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .162 BA is quite a bit lower than his .258 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Kansas City Royals hitters as a group rank among the best in MLB this year (6th-) when assessing their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 79 games at home (+25.20 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 70 of their last 122 games (+19.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-145/+115)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 62% ROI)