Discover the Game Time for Astros vs Tigers – Wednesday August 20, 2025

Houston Astros

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Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers host the Houston Astros on August 20, 2025, in what promises to be a compelling matchup at Comerica Park. The Tigers, currently holding a record of 75-53, are enjoying a strong season and look to build on their recent success, having secured a narrow 1-0 victory in their last contest against the Astros. Meanwhile, Houston’s record of 69-57 puts them in an above-average position, but they will aim to rebound from the shutout loss.

On the mound, Detroit is set to start Charlie Morton, who has had a challenging year with an 8-10 record and a 5.20 ERA, ranking as the 169th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. However, Morton’s performance has shown signs of improvement, as evidenced by his last start where he pitched six innings without allowing an earned run. Still, he struggles with walks, boasting a 10.0 BB% this season, which could be problematic against a disciplined Astros lineup that ranks 6th in fewest walks.

Framber Valdez takes the hill for Houston, boasting an impressive 11-6 record and a stellar 3.01 ERA. Valdez is ranked 15th among MLB starters and has been solid this season, although his xERA suggests he may be due for some regression. The Astros’ offense, while ranked 14th overall, has been bolstered by a strong batting average of .278, which sits 6th in the league.

With both teams demonstrating solid play, the projections suggest an even matchup, but with Morton’s potential for a bounce-back performance and the Tigers’ strong showing at home, they could have the edge in this contest. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting expectations of a competitive game.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Because of his large reverse platoon split, Framber Valdez will be in a good position being matched up with 8 bats in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (25.4) suggests that Jesus Sanchez has had bad variance on his side this year with his 15.2 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 5th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Checking in at the 76th percentile, Charlie Morton compiled an 11.7% Swinging Strike percentage this year.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Javier Baez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Projected catcher Jake Rogers projects as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 54 games at home (+12.53 Units / 20% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 74 of their last 125 games (+17.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Spencer Torkelson has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+8.60 Units / 19% ROI)