Discover the Game Location for Royals vs Guardians – Friday, April 11, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians host the Kansas City Royals at Progressive Field on April 11, 2025, both teams are looking to gain an edge in their American League Central matchup. The Guardians, sitting at a record of 6-6, are having an average season, while the Royals, at 7-6, are performing slightly above average. The Guardians won their last game decisively, taking down their opponent 6-1, while the Royals also come off a victory, edging their last game 3-2.

Cleveland is projected to start Tanner Bibee, who has struggled early this season with a 1-1 record and a troubling ERA of 6.52. However, advanced projections suggest he has been unlucky, indicating a potential for improvement. Bibee is a right-handed pitcher, and while he’s a low-strikeout option, he faces a Royals offense that ranks 6th least in strikeouts. This matchup could favor Bibee as he looks to capitalize on a less aggressive lineup.

On the other side, Kansas City will counter with Kris Bubic, who boasts a stellar 2-0 record and an impressive ERA of 0.71 this season. His performances have been solid, but projections indicate he may be due for regression, especially against a Guardians lineup that ranks 19th in overall offensive production but has power potential, ranking 10th in home runs.

With a low Game Total set at 7.0 runs, the Guardians have a slight edge according to betting markets, with a moneyline of -125, implying a 53% chance of victory. Given the current trends and pitcher matchups, expect a closely contested game as both teams seek to bolster their standings in a competitive division.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kris Bubic – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Kris Bubic’s 2363.4-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 75th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Typically, batters like Salvador Perez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Tanner Bibee.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals’ bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Considering that groundball pitchers have a sizeable edge over groundball bats, Tanner Bibee and his 39.3% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in today’s outing squaring off against 3 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Kyle Manzardo has made big strides with his Barrel%, improving his 9.5% rate last season to 19.2% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.8% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 33% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 41 away games (+2.05 Units / 4% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.35 Units / 19% ROI)