Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
(-110/-110)-125
As the Houston Astros prepare to face off against the Kansas City Royals on May 14, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum in this pivotal matchup. The Astros are coming off a narrow 2-1 victory over the Royals yesterday, which marked an encouraging turnaround for them after struggling earlier in the season. With a record of 21-20, Houston finds themselves in a competitive American League landscape, while Kansas City sits at 25-19, riding the wave of a good season.
On the mound for the Astros will be Colton Gordon, projected to pitch nearly 5 innings with an average of 2.5 earned runs allowed. Unfortunately for Gordon, he ranks as the 194th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. In contrast, Michael Lorenzen of the Royals will take the hill, coming off an impressive outing where he delivered 7 innings of shutout ball just a week ago. Lorenzen’s ERA of 3.57 is solid, although his 4.21 xFIP raises some questions about his future performance.
Despite their struggles, the Astros’ offense has managed to maintain an average ranking, sitting 13th in MLB. They present a particular challenge for Lorenzen, especially given that their best hitter is producing at a high level, boasting a .297 batting average and an .806 OPS, along with 6 home runs this season. The Royals, however, have had difficulties with power, ranking dead last in home runs this season, which could play into the Astros’ hands.
With a projected Game Total of 8.5 runs, betting markets suggest a tight contest ahead. Houston’s current moneyline of -120 reflects their slight edge, making them an intriguing pick as they aim to continue their winning ways against a struggling Royals offense.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)Michael Lorenzen’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (59.4% compared to 51.7% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Extreme groundball batters like Salvador Perez tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Colton Gordon.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Hunter Renfroe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Houston Astros Insights
- Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Over the last two weeks, Jose Altuve’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.2% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Positioned 4th-highest in Major League Baseball this year, Houston Astros bats as a group have put up a 17.3° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (an advanced metric to study power skills).Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
Betting Trends
- Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+165)The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+9.47 Units / 46% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-150/+120)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 28 games (+13.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2200)Michael Massey has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+10.60 Units / 265% ROI)