Discover the Game Location for Phillies vs Mets – Monday, August 25, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies logo

Philadelphia Phillies

@
New York Mets logo

New York Mets

-130O/U: 7.5
(-120/+100)
+110

As the Philadelphia Phillies visit Citi Field to face the New York Mets on August 25, 2025, both teams are looking to establish momentum in this crucial National League East matchup. The Phillies, boasting a strong 76-54 record, have been on a roll, winning their last game against the Mets by a score of 4-3. Meanwhile, the Mets, at 69-61, are having an above-average season but are coming off a tough loss.

On the mound, the Mets are projected to start Kodai Senga, who has had an impressive season with a 2.58 ERA and a 7-5 record. However, his 4.31 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit lucky, suggesting potential struggles ahead. Senga’s last outing was less than stellar, as he allowed 4 earned runs over 5 innings against the Phillies. In contrast, Cristopher Sanchez, the Phillies’ projected starter, has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB with a 2.46 ERA and an 11-4 record. Sanchez’s last start was dominant, featuring 12 strikeouts over 6 innings.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 5th in MLB, with a .282 batting average, while the Mets sit at 9th, showcasing their potential to score runs. The projections suggest that the Mets may struggle against Sanchez’s low walk rate, which could negate their patient approach at the plate. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a tightly contested matchup.

Despite the odds favoring the Phillies, the Mets’ offensive capabilities and Senga’s potential for a bounce-back performance could make this game closer than the betting lines suggest. With an implied team total of just 3.57 runs for the Mets, this game presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors looking for value.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

  • Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
    With 6 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Cristopher Sanchez will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
    Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
  • Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
    Max Kepler has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .295 mark is deflated compared to his .337 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
    Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
  • Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
    Harrison Bader pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
    Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

  • Kodai Senga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
    Kodai Senga was in good form in his previous GS and compiled 8 strikeouts.
    Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
  • Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
    Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
    Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
  • New York Mets – Moneyline (+110)
    The New York Mets projected lineup profiles as the 3rd-strongest on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.
    Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

  • Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
    The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 76 games (+6.65 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
    The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 46 away games (+16.20 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+540/-950)
    Mark Vientos has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+18.40 Units / 263% ROI)