Discover the Game Location for Mets vs Reds – Sunday, September 7, 2025

New York Mets

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Cincinnati Reds

On September 7, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the New York Mets at Great American Ball Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. Both teams are fighting for positioning, with the Reds sitting at a mediocre 71-71, while the Mets boast a stronger 76-66 record. In their previous encounter, the Reds secured a victory, and they’ll look to continue that momentum.

The matchup features a significant contrast in pitching. Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene, who is projected to start, has had a solid season with a 2.70 ERA and an impressive strikeout rate of 6.6 batters per game. Greene ranks as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB, a testament to his effectiveness despite some peripheral indicators, like his 3.39 xFIP, suggesting a possible regression. Conversely, New York’s Brandon Sproat has struggled, projecting to pitch only 4.9 innings while allowing 4.9 hits per game along with a below-average strikeout rate of 3.7. This contrast gives the Reds a favorable pitching advantage.

Offensively, the Reds find themselves in the middle of the pack, ranked 16th in MLB, specifically struggling with power as they sit 24th in home runs. In contrast, the Mets’ offense is thriving, ranking 4th overall thanks to a balanced attack that includes 6th in home runs and a solid 7th in batting average. However, Greene’s ability to limit walks (5.2 BB%) could neutralize some of the Mets’ offensive strength, particularly since they rank 3rd in MLB in walks drawn.

Given these factors, betting markets reflect a close contest, with Cincinnati having a slightly higher moneyline at -125. The Reds will aim to leverage their home-field advantage, and if Greene can deliver an exceptional performance, they may well defy expectations in this pivotal matchup.

New York Mets Insights

• Brandon Sproat – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+115)
  Brandon Sproat has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 8.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Starling Marte tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Greene.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (+100)
  The 2nd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  The New York Mets have 6 bats in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Greene in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Matt McLain has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (59% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 116 games (+24.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 72 games (+10.20 Units / 13% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)
  Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 20 away games (+8.70 Units / 44% ROI)