Discover the Game Location for Marlins vs Orioles – Saturday, July 12, 2025

Miami Marlins

@

Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Miami Marlins on July 12, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling below .500 with records of 43-50 and 42-51, respectively. Neither team is in contention for a division title, but they will look to build momentum in this interleague matchup after the Orioles secured a narrow victory in yesterday’s game.

The Orioles will send Trevor Rogers to the mound, who has been a mixed bag this season. Although he boasts an impressive 1.57 ERA, advanced statistics suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as his 3.80 xFIP indicates a potential for regression. Rogers is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing around 2.7 earned runs, but he struggles with walks, averaging 1.5 per game. Facing him will be Janson Junk, who has a solid 3.12 ERA but also shows signs of being due for a downturn, as his 3.89 xERA suggests he might not sustain this level of performance.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 18th in MLB, characterized by a lackluster batting average that sits at 23rd. However, they do have a respectable home run output, ranking 11th in the league. The Marlins, on the other hand, have a 21st overall ranking in offense and a dismal 26th in home runs, highlighting their struggles to generate power.

The projections favor the Orioles, who have an implied team total of 4.99 runs for this game, compared to the Marlins’ 4.01 runs. Given the matchup of Rogers against a Marlins lineup that has been underwhelming, the Orioles may have the edge they need to capitalize on their home field advantage at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Janson Junk – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-175/+135)
  Janson Junk’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (61.7% since the start of last season) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Miami Marlins bats jointly place 21st- in MLB for power this year when using their 8% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Trevor Rogers’s 2423-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 81st percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jacob Stallings – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Grading out in the 0th percentile for base-stealing, Jacob Stallings has average 0 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 78 games (+13.13 Units / 15% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+140)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 away games (+12.85 Units / 51% ROI)
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Eric Wagaman has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.00 Units / 58% ROI)