Discover the Game Location for Dodgers vs Cardinals – Friday, August 16, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Busch Stadium on August 16, 2024, both teams are coming off losses in their previous games. The Cardinals fell to the Cincinnati Reds by a score of 9-2, while the Dodgers lost a closely contested matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, 6-4. The stakes are high for the Cardinals, who are trying to turn around a disappointing season with a record of 60-61, while the Dodgers, currently at 71-51, look to maintain their strong performance.

Miles Mikolas takes the mound for St. Louis, looking to shake off a tough outing where he allowed 5 earned runs in just 4 innings against the Chicago Cubs. Despite his struggles this season, Mikolas’s advanced metrics suggest he has faced some bad luck, with a 4.26 xFIP indicating potential for improvement. The Cardinals’ offense, ranked 20th in MLB, needs to provide more support; they average 4.91 runs according to projections, which highlights their potential to capitalize on favorable matchups.

On the other side, Justin Wrobleski will start for Los Angeles. Although he has had limited appearances this season, his 4.05 ERA is respectable, but his 4.85 xFIP raises some concerns about sustainability. Wrobleski will face a Cardinals lineup that has shown flashes but ranks poorly in several offensive categories, including a 22nd ranking in home runs.

The projections favor the Dodgers, who are expected to score around 5.33 runs, indicating that their potent offense, ranked 5th in the league, could exploit Mikolas’s vulnerabilities. With a game total of 9.5 runs, it promises to be an eventful matchup and a crucial one for the Cardinals if they hope to keep their season alive.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Justin Wrobleski – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Justin Wrobleski’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (66.5% since the start of last season) is likely hurting his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+205/-275)
  Will Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (97% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 9.1% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Dodgers makes them the #5 group of hitters in the majors this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  In his last GS, Miles Mikolas gave up a whopping 5 earned runs.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Tommy Pham’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 90.2-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 79.6-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games (+6.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 37% ROI)
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+450/-750)
  Masyn Winn has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games at home (+17.00 Units / 142% ROI)