Chicago Cubs
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-105/-115)-120
As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the Chicago Cubs on March 29, 2025, they enter this matchup with a slight edge in the standings, holding a record of 1-1, while the Cubs sit at 1-3. The D-Backs are having an average start to the season, while the Cubs are struggling significantly. This game marks the third in their series, and the stakes are high as both teams look to build momentum.
In their last outing, the Diamondbacks showcased their pitching depth, with Brandon Pfaadt set to take the mound. Pfaadt, ranked 94th among starting pitchers, is projected to deliver an average performance today, expected to pitch around 5.2 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.3 batters. However, his projections indicate potential trouble, as he may allow 5.1 hits and 1.2 walks, which could open the door for the Cubs’ offense.
On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Shota Imanaga, who has been slightly more effective this season, ranking 69th among his peers. Imanaga’s projections suggest he will pitch about 5.0 innings, with a similar earned run expectation of 2.6. However, he too struggles with allowing hits and walks, projected to give up 5.3 hits and 1.0 walks, which could lead to scoring opportunities for the Diamondbacks.
Betting markets indicate a close game, with the Diamondbacks holding a moneyline of -120 and an implied team total of 4.35 runs, while the Cubs sit at +100 with a team total of 4.15 runs. Given the current trends and projections, Arizona may have the upper hand in this contest, especially with their home field advantage at Chase Field. This matchup promises to be a critical early-season clash as both teams strive for a turnaround.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Shota Imanaga to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Tucker in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- The Chicago Cubs (24.9% K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-most strikeout-heavy set of hitters on the slate.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Brandon Pfaadt in the 84th percentile among all starting pitchers in the majors.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)The switch-hitting Ketel Marte will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Shota Imanaga.Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 75 of their last 121 games (+28.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 away games (+11.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jon Berti – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)Jon Berti has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 52% ROI)