Discover the Dodgers vs Padres Preview and Prediction – Wednesday July 31, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers are set to face off on July 31, 2024, at Petco Park in what promises to be an exciting National League West matchup. The Padres, with a 57-51 record, are having an above-average season, while the Dodgers, at 63-44, are enjoying a great season. This game is the second in the series between these two division rivals.

The Padres will send right-hander Dylan Cease to the mound. Cease has been solid this season, and he will look to stifle a potent Dodgers lineup that ranks 6th in MLB in team batting average and 3rd in team home runs. On the other side, the Dodgers will counter with right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who will face a Padres offense that leads MLB in team batting average and ranks 10th in home runs. Both teams boast strong offenses, making this a potentially high-scoring affair.

San Diego’s Xander Bogaerts has been on fire over the last week, recording a .583 batting average and a 1.532 OPS over his last 6 games. His recent performance has been a bright spot and could be a key factor in this game. Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ Gavin Lux has also been hot, hitting .500 with a 1.432 OPS over his last 6 games. Both hitters will be crucial to their teams’ success in this matchup.

Given the Padres’ top-ranked offense and the Dodgers’ power-hitting capabilities, this game could go either way. However, the Dodgers’ slightly better record and Glasnow’s ability to miss bats might give them a slight edge. For bettors, this game offers an intriguing matchup of strengths, making it a must-watch contest.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Clayton Kershaw – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Clayton Kershaw’s 90.1-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 8th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jason Heyward – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Jason Heyward has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (80% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Today’s version of the Dodgers projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .324 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .338 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  Dylan Cease has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 10.7 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Manny Machado has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 95.8-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+10.45 Units / 38% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 away games (+3.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.75 Units / 50% ROI)