Discover the D-Backs vs Cubs Game Time – April 18, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 18, 2025, both teams bring intriguing narratives to the field. The Cubs currently sit at 12-9, showcasing a strong offensive lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB, while the Diamondbacks lead the division with a 12-7 record, bolstered by their 2nd best offense. This matchup marks the first in this series, setting the stage for a critical battle between two playoff contenders.

In their most recent outings, the Cubs fell to the Diamondbacks 4-2 on April 16, while Arizona celebrated a victory over their opponent with a 6-4 win. Colin Rea, projected to start for the Cubs, has had an impressive ERA of 1.00 this season, albeit with a concerning xFIP of 3.85, indicating he may have been fortunate thus far. Rea’s ability to limit walks (2.8 BB%) could be pivotal against a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for drawing walks.

On the opposing mound, Corbin Burnes has struggled, holding a 5.28 ERA but projecting to improve due to bad luck, as his xFIP sits at 4.64. The Cubs’ power-hitting approach (ranking 4th in home runs) could pose challenges for Burnes, who is a ground-ball pitcher (48 GB%). This may help the Cubs capitalize on potential long balls, especially considering their high projected team total of 5.50 runs for today’s game.

With both teams possessing potent offenses, the Game Total is set at a lofty 11.0 runs, illustrating expectations for a high-scoring affair. As the Cubs look to bounce back from their recent defeat, they will lean heavily on their offensive depth and Rea’s early-season success to gain momentum in this pivotal matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Corbin Burnes has notched a 12.7% Swinging Strike% since the start of last season, placing in the 81st percentile.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Eugenio Suarez has a ton of pop (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (29.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Colin Rea has a pitch-to-contact profile (13th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.318 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .344 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  Colin Rea is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #23 HR venue in the league in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  This season, Carson Kelly has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 100.4 mph compared to last year’s 91.4 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Chicago’s 93.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #9 team in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.00 Units / 32% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 162 games (+21.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+125/-160)
  Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 42% ROI)