Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-105/-115)-110
As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 10, 2024, both teams are eyeing crucial wins as the season heats up. The Dodgers currently sit with a record of 67-49, showcasing a strong season, while the Pirates are at 56-59, marking an average performance thus far. The Dodgers, after a solid 9-5 victory against the Pirates yesterday, will look to keep their momentum going in this second game of the series.
On the mound, the Dodgers are projected to start River Ryan, who has had an impressive 1.72 ERA this season, although advanced metrics suggest he may be due for some regression. Ryan has a tendency to allow a high number of hits, projected to give up 4.5 today. In contrast, the Pirates will counter with Paul Skenes, ranked as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB this season with an impressive 1.99 ERA. Skenes has proven to be an elite option, and his low walk rate of 5.7% could pose challenges for the Dodgers’ high-walk offense, which ranks 2nd in the league.
The projected offensive output favors the Dodgers slightly, with projections estimating them to score around 4.54 runs, compared to the Pirates’ 4.65. However, the leading MLB projection system pegs the Dodgers’ chances to win at 52%, suggesting some value in their current moneyline of -115. With the Dodgers’ powerful lineup ranked 4th in MLB and their recent offensive success, they could capitalize on Skenes’ groundball tendencies, potentially making for an exciting matchup at Dodger Stadium.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Paul Skenes – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Paul Skenes’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2217 rpm) has been considerably lower than than his seasonal rate (2273 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
- Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)Bryan De La Cruz is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael A. Taylor, Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- River Ryan – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)Compared to the average hurler, River Ryan has been given less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -22.8 fewer adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Austin Barnes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Austin Barnes’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 90.4-mph figure last season has dropped off to 84.9-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Los Angeles’s 89.2-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the game: #7 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 56 games at home (+9.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+155)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 76 games (+15.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+550/-1000)Freddie Freeman has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 48 games (+11.45 Units / 24% ROI)