Discover the Best Player Props for Pirates vs Reds – 9/25/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 25, 2025, in a critical National League Central matchup. With both teams facing disappointing seasons, the Reds sit at 80-78, while the Pirates trail with a 69-89 record. Cincinnati’s recent performance has been shaky, having lost their last contest to Pittsburgh by a score of 4-3, but they are still favored to win today.

The Reds project to start Nick Lodolo, who has established himself as a solid pitcher this season, ranking 44th among Major League Baseball starters. Despite an 8-8 record and a great ERA of 3.44, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate this year, with a FIP of 3.96 indicating potential for regression. Lodolo’s last outing was uneventful, giving up 4 earned runs over 5 innings, though he did strike out 7 batters.

In contrast, the Pirates will send Braxton Ashcraft to the mound. While Ashcraft has been above average this season, with a strong ERA of 2.62, his xFIP of 3.56 suggests he, too, may face challenges moving forward. He pitched 4 innings in his last start, allowing 3 earned runs and striking out 4.

Offensively, the Reds rank 19th in MLB, showing some room for improvement. Their best hitter is enjoying a strong late-season surge, with a .417 batting average and 2 home runs over the past week. On the other side, the Pirates have struggled mightily, ranking last in MLB overall and in home runs, and their best hitter has also shown little spark lately.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 11.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Compared to the average starter, Braxton Ashcraft has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -17.4 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (16.6) suggests that Joey Bart has experienced some negative variance this year with his 7.5 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Rafael Flores, Joey Bart, Alexander Canario).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Nick Lodolo’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (50.5% compared to 43.7% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Spencer Steer has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (59% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cincinnati’s 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in MLB: #29 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 147 games (+26.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 90 of their last 150 games (+23.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• Nick Yorke – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2200)
  Nick Yorke has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)