Discover the Best Player Props for Pirates vs Giants – 7/28/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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San Francisco Giants

On July 28, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Oracle Park for the first game of their three-game series. Currently, the Giants hold a record of 54-52, while the Pirates are struggling at 44-62. Both teams are well out of contention, with the Giants experiencing an average season and the Pirates facing a dismal campaign.

In their last outing, the Giants’ offense has shown some life, especially from their best hitter, who has put together an impressive .348 batting average over the past week. In contrast, the Pirates’ top performer has been even more dominant, boasting a remarkable .450 average during the same stretch. Despite the Giants having the 24th best offense in the league this season, they may take advantage of the Pirates’ struggles.

On the mound, the Giants will send Carson Whisenhunt, a left-handed pitcher who has been projected to allow 2.5 earned runs in 4.9 innings of work today, which is not particularly encouraging. With an average strikeout rate and the potential to give up 5.4 hits, the Giants will need their offense to produce against Mitch Keller, a right-hander who, despite a poor 4-10 record, has managed a solid 3.53 ERA this season. However, Keller’s projections suggest he may be due for some regression.

With the game total currently set at a low 7.5 runs, the betting markets indicate a close matchup, with the Giants favored at -130 and an implied team total of 3.93 runs. The Giants’ bullpen, ranked 10th, could play a pivotal role if they can keep the game tight late, while the Pirates’ average bullpen ranking might not hold up in high-pressure situations. With both teams underperforming, this matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Mitch Keller has relied on his slider 8.8% more often this year (33.9%) than he did last season (25.1%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under Hits
  Joey Bart is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Rafael Devers has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.5-mph to 97.7-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Heliot Ramos has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 88 games (+14.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 66 of their last 105 games (+23.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-145)
  Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 54% ROI)