Discover the Athletics vs Red Sox Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Wednesday, September 17th, 2025

Athletics

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Boston Red Sox

On September 17, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Oakland Athletics at Fenway Park for the second game of their series. The Red Sox are currently enjoying an above-average season with an 82-69 record, while the Athletics sit at 71-80, having struggled throughout the year. In their last encounter, the Athletics edged out the Red Sox with a narrow 2-1 victory, adding to the tension of this matchup.

The Red Sox are projected to start Lucas Giolito, a right-handed pitcher with a 10-4 record and a solid 3.31 ERA. However, his 4.43 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate this season. Giolito’s recent outing was impressive, as he pitched six innings, allowing just one earned run while striking out six batters. He will face Mason Barnett, also a righty, who has had a rough year with an 8.53 ERA and a 1-1 record over three starts. Barnett’s projections indicate he may improve, but his last start was concerning, where he allowed three earned runs in just four innings.

The Red Sox offense ranks as the 9th best in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, while the Athletics, despite ranking 6th in overall offense, have struggled to translate that into consistent wins. The Red Sox’s power hitters could exploit Giolito’s flyball tendencies against a powerful Athletics lineup that has hit 211 home runs, ranking 4th in the league.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs and the Red Sox favored at -160 on the moneyline, this matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors. The projections suggest a favorable outcome for Boston, making them a team to watch as they look to bounce back after their recent loss.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – Moneyline (+145)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Athletics.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Tyler Soderstrom has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 97.8-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Lawrence Butler has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Lucas Giolito – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Compared to average, Lucas Giolito has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 4.4 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Alex Bregman has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .357 figure is a good deal higher than his .320 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The Boston Red Sox have been the 6th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-165)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 82 games (+12.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• Athletics – Moneyline (+145)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 84 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+11.65 Units / 47% ROI)