Discover Odds and Betting Trends for White Sox vs Rockies – 7/4/25

Chicago White Sox

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Colorado Rockies

On July 4, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Chicago White Sox in an interleague matchup at Coors Field. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Rockies sitting at 20-67 and the White Sox at 28-59. Despite their records, the Rockies managed a close victory in their last outing, edging out the White Sox 7-6 on July 3.

Starting for the Rockies will be Antonio Senzatela, who has had a rough season with a 3-11 record and an alarming ERA of 6.69. His last start was particularly troubling, where he allowed 5 earned runs over just 4 innings. Senzatela projects to pitch an average of 4.8 innings today, allowing 3.3 earned runs and 6.6 hits. This places him among the bottom tier of MLB pitchers, ranked 316th out of approximately 350.

On the other side, the White Sox will counter with Adrian Houser, who has been performing well with a 3-2 record and an impressive ERA of 1.90. However, projections indicate he may be due for some regression, as his xFIP of 4.07 suggests he has been a bit lucky this season. Houser’s last outing was a strong performance, going 7 innings with no earned runs, striking out 5 batters.

Offensively, the Rockies rank 25th in MLB, while the White Sox sit at the bottom at 30th. This matchup is crucial for both teams, given their dismal records. The Rockies have a higher implied team total of 5.37 runs compared to the White Sox’s 5.63, suggesting that oddsmakers see a close contest. With Senzatela’s struggles and Houser’s recent form, this game could tilt in favor of the Rockies if their offense can capitalize on the White Sox’s weak pitching and batting performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Adrian Houser – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Adrian Houser has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 59.3% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Michael A. Taylor has big-time power (84th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (33.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Antonio Senzatela has a pitch-to-contact profile (3rd percentile K%) — great news for Taylor.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Antonio Senzatela’s 2213-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 15th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ryan Ritter – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Ryan Ritter has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 82.6-mph dropping to 80.1-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Colorado Rockies will tally 6.12 runs on average in this matchup: the 2nd-most of all teams playing today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 74 games (+9.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 43 away games (+12.55 Units / 27% ROI)
• Josh Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-150/+120)
  Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+5.35 Units / 12% ROI)