Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Angels
(-120/+100)-110
On July 11, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Angel Stadium in the first game of their interleague series. Both teams find themselves hovering around .500, with the Angels sitting at 45-48, slightly below average, while the Diamondbacks are at 46-48, marking a more average season. The Angels are coming off a disappointing loss to the Seattle Mariners, where they fell 11-4, extending their struggles.
Tyler Anderson is projected to take the mound for the Angels, sporting a 2-6 record and a 4.19 ERA this season. However, his xFIP of 4.96 suggests he may have been fortunate in his performance thus far, indicating potential struggles ahead. Anderson’s high flyball rate (42% this year) could be concerning against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 4th in MLB with 137 home runs.
On the other side, Ryne Nelson leads the Diamondbacks’ rotation, holding a solid 5-2 record and an impressive 3.39 ERA. Nelson is coming off a strong outing, where he pitched 7 innings, allowing just 1 earned run, and striking out 5. The projections indicate that he could face challenges as he averages 5.2 innings pitched and projects to allow 2.9 earned runs.
The Angels’ offense ranks 22nd overall but does have a potent power threat, ranking 5th in home runs. Conversely, the Diamondbacks boast the 4th best offense in baseball, which may give them an edge in this matchup. With both teams projected to score 4.50 runs, expect a competitive game as the Angels look to turn their season around against a challenging opponent.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Out of all starters, Ryne Nelson’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph ranks in the 78th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Last year, Eugenio Suarez had an average launch angle of 18.8° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 22.4°.Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks today holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .317, which is a good deal worse than their actual wOBA of .333 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)Tyler Anderson is an extreme flyball pitcher (40% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #7 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Jo Adell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Jo Adell has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.5-mph average to last year’s 94.1-mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Los Angeles Angels – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Angels bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (-110)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 60 games (+12.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 70 games (+13.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- Gustavo Campero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Gustavo Campero has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.25 Units / 91% ROI)