Discover Odds and Betting Trends for D-Backs vs Angels – 7/11/25

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels host the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 11, 2025, both teams find themselves in the middle of the pack, with records of 45-48 and 46-48, respectively. The Angels are enduring a below-average season, while the Diamondbacks are managing to keep things average. Both teams are looking to turn things around, especially considering their positions in the standings, with neither currently a contender for a playoff spot.

In their most recent outings, both teams are eager to rebound. The Angels’ best hitter has been on a bit of a hot streak, posting six hits and three home runs in the last week, while the Diamondbacks’ top performer has also been steady with seven hits and six RBIs during the same period. This matchup marks the first of the series, and both teams will be eager to gain an early edge.

Tyler Anderson is set to take the mound for the Angels. His record of 2-6 and an ERA of 4.19 indicate struggles this season. However, he projects to pitch an average of 5.5 innings while allowing around 3.0 earned runs. His high flyball rate could be concerning against a powerful Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 3rd in home runs this season. Meanwhile, Ryne Nelson, projected to start for Arizona, has been solid with a 5-2 record and an impressive ERA of 3.39. His ability to manage hitters could be a key factor in today’s game.

With the Diamondbacks boasting the 3rd best offense in MLB and the Angels struggling at 22nd, the projections favor Arizona’s chances. The game total is set at a high 9.5 runs, indicating that both offenses may find success today. Betting markets reflect a close battle, but the Diamondbacks may hold the advantage in this interleague matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Out of all starters, Ryne Nelson’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph ranks in the 78th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The Barrel% of Corbin Carroll has significantly improved, with an increase from 7.3% last year to 15.3% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• It may be wise to expect negative regression for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Tyler Anderson is an extreme flyball pitcher (40% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #7 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jo Adell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Jo Adell has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.5-mph average to last year’s 94.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+100)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 60 games (+12.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 70 games (+13.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.10 Units / 36% ROI)