Discover Odds and Betting Trends for Cubs vs Brewers - 10/6/25

+115O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-135

Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Shota Imanaga (45.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 4 GB hitters in Milwaukee’s projected batting order.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
Pete Crow-Armstrong has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (62% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
Dansby Swanson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Aaron Ashby – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
Aaron Ashby has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 7 opposite-handed hitters in today’s game.
Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
Joey Ortiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 90.8-mph EV last season has dropped off to 86.2-mph.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
It may be best to expect better results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.
Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-135)
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 85 of their last 136 games (+25.65 Units / 14% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 71 of their last 144 games (+10.75 Units / 5% ROI)
Caleb Durbin – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
Caleb Durbin has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.05 Units / 34% ROI)

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