
Cincinnati Reds
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Los Angeles Dodgers
+170O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-200
(-110/-110)-200
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Hunter Greene – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Hunter Greene’s 98.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.2-mph jump from last season’s 97.6-mph mark.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
- Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Spencer Steer is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Los Angeles (#2-worst of all teams on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Cincinnati Reds – 2H MoneylineThe Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 5th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Blake Snell – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)Compared to the average starting pitcher, Blake Snell has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an additional 3.6 adjusted pitches each outing.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Max Muncy has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (51% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today’s game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Max Muncy pulls many of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 90 games (+12.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 76 of their last 127 games (+29.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-160/+125)Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+11.05 Units / 54% ROI)
