Discover Current Player Trends for Marlins vs Brewers – Friday July 26, 2024

Miami Marlins

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to take on the Miami Marlins on July 26, 2024, at American Family Field. This National League matchup will see the Brewers, who hold a strong 59-43 record this season, face off against the struggling Marlins, who sit at 37-66. Despite the disparity in records, this game promises to have interesting dynamics, especially given the starting pitchers.

Freddy Peralta, an elite right-hander ranked 14th in the league, is projected to start for Milwaukee. Peralta’s 3.88 ERA might suggest he’s been solid, but his 3.28 SIERA indicates he has been unlucky and is poised to perform even better. Furthermore, he’s coming off an impressive outing on July 20, where he pitched six scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. The Brewers’ offense, ranked 8th in the league and 2nd in stolen bases, will look to support Peralta. Jackson Chourio, who has been hot over the last week with a .429 average and 1.048 OPS, could be key in this game.

Miami will counter with Trevor Rogers, a left-hander who has struggled this season. Rogers is one of the worst pitchers in the league according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, with a 4.59 ERA and a 1-9 record. The Marlins’ offense, ranked 29th, has had a hard time generating runs and power, which doesn’t bode well against a pitcher like Peralta who can dominate weak lineups. Jazz Chisholm has been their standout player, but even he might find it tough against Peralta.

Additionally, the Brewers have a tactical advantage. Peralta’s high-flyball rate against a Marlins offense that struggles with power should mitigate any potential threats. On the flip side, Rogers’ high walk rate facing a Brewers offense known for drawing walks could spell trouble for Miami.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, backs Milwaukee as a strong favorite with a 64% win probability. Current odds also favor the Brewers with an implied win probability of 66%, highlighting their dominance in this matchup. Expect the Brewers to capitalize on their favorable conditions and continue their impressive season.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
  Trevor Rogers has tallied 15 outs per GS this year, placing in the 24th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Xavier Edwards is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  In today’s matchup, Bryan De La Cruz is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.5% rate (81st percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Freddy Peralta’s curveball usage has decreased by 7.8% from last year to this one (12.5% to 4.7%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Rhys Hoskins’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 87.7-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 81.6-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games at home (+9.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 47 of their last 81 games (+10.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-140/+110)
  Trevor Rogers has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.30 Units / 84% ROI)