Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Yankees vs Red Sox – 4/21/2026

New York Yankees

@

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Luis Gil’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (56.1 compared to 50.6% last year) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Ben Rice has made significant gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 15.8% rate last year to 23.3% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The 12.2% Barrel% of the New York Yankees makes them the #1 club in the league since the start of last season by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-110)
  The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the best out of all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Willson Contreras has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.9-mph average to last season’s 95.8-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Marcelo Mayer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Marcelo Mayer has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+4.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)
  Giancarlo Stanton has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 44% ROI)