Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Rangers vs Rays – 6/3/2025

Texas Rangers

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Texas Rangers for the first game of their series on June 3, 2025. Both teams are looking to find their footing as they enter this matchup with similar records in the American League. The Rays sit at 30-29, showing signs of being average this season, while the Rangers come in at 29-31, struggling with a below-average performance.

The Rays’ last outing on June 1 resulted in a narrow 1-0 loss, while the Rangers celebrated a significant 8-1 victory over their opponent. Despite these recent performances, the Rays are favored to win at -140, reflecting a 56% implied probability—an indication that the betting market is optimistic about their chances.

Drew Rasmussen is projected to start for Tampa Bay, boasting a strong 2.33 ERA this year, ranking him 27th among MLB starters, suggesting he has been a great asset. His recent performance showcases his effectiveness, having pitched 6 innings without allowing any earned runs in his last start. However, the projections indicate some potential regression, as his 3.54 xFIP hints at a bit of good fortune in his performance thus far.

On the other hand, Tyler Mahle takes the mound for the Rangers, holding a competitive 1.64 ERA. He ranks 86th among MLB starters, putting him in the above-average category, but similar signals about luck are present with his 4.24 xFIP. This matchup presents an intriguing contrast between the Rays’ struggles in offensive consistency, ranked 17th, and the Rangers, whose offense is one of the worst in the league, sitting at 28th.

As the Rays strive to capitalize on their pitching advantage against a struggling Rangers offense, this game could turn the tide for Tampa Bay, suggesting they might outperform their current betting line.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Tyler Mahle has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 6 opposite-handed batters in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Marcus Semien has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (85% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen ranks as the worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Drew Rasmussen’s 2498-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 93rd percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Taylor Walls’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 89.8-mph average last year has dropped to 87.2-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+9.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 55 games (+16.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Wyatt Langford has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+7.85 Units / 24% ROI)