Baltimore Orioles
Detroit Tigers
(-110/-110)-130
On April 25, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Baltimore Orioles at Comerica Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Tigers, currently 15-10, are enjoying a strong season, while the Orioles sit at 10-14, struggling to find their footing. Detroit’s Casey Mize, who boasts an impressive 2.22 ERA this year, is set to take the mound. Mize has had a solid season thus far with a 3-1 record over four starts, although projections suggest that he might be due for some regression given his elevated xFIP of 4.43.
Brandon Young, projected to start for Baltimore, has had a rough beginning to the season with a 6.75 ERA through one start. His peripherals indicate he could see improvement moving forward, but against a Tigers lineup that ranks 6th in strikeouts, he may face challenges. Notably, Young is a low-strikeout pitcher, which doesn’t bode well against a lineup that thrives on making pitchers miss.
Detroit’s offense ranks 14th in MLB and has been bolstered by its best hitter, who recently recorded 9 hits in 5 games with a .474 batting average and a 1.208 OPS. In contrast, Baltimore, while ranked 18th overall in offense, has shown power with a 9th place ranking in home runs this season but struggles with contact, boasting a lower batting average.
With a high implied team total of 4.45 runs for the Tigers against an average Game Total of 8.5 runs, Detroit seems primed to take advantage of a struggling Baltimore pitching staff and capitalize on their own strong bullpen, ranked 3rd overall in MLB. Betting markets anticipate a close matchup, making this game an intriguing one to watch for bettors and fans alike.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Extreme groundball hitters like Jackson Holliday tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Casey Mize.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under Total BasesRyan Mountcastle has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will be challenged by the league’s 10th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Casey Mize’s 93.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.5-mph fall off from last year’s 95.4-mph mark.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Kerry Carpenter has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 13.1% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The Detroit Tigers have 5 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Jace Jung, Dillon Dingler, Justyn-Henry Malloy).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+6.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Riley Greene – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.70 Units / 39% ROI)