Detailed Player Insights for Pirates vs Red Sox – 8/31/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Fenway Park on August 31, 2025, they find themselves in a strong position with a record of 75-62, showcasing an above-average season. In contrast, the Pirates have struggled significantly, sitting at 61-76 and ranking as the 29th best offense in MLB. This interleague matchup is crucial for the Red Sox as they look to solidify their standing in the playoff race.

In their previous game, the Red Sox secured a victory, which adds momentum as they face a Pirates squad that has been plagued by inconsistency. The Red Sox are projected to start Lucas Giolito, who boasts a solid 3.47 ERA this year, although advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a regression. Giolito has also enjoyed a favorable matchup against a Pirates offense that has hit the fewest home runs in MLB, which could play to his advantage.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh will send Mitch Keller to the mound. While Keller’s ERA of 4.35 is average, his 3.77 FIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky this season. However, he faces a Red Sox offense that ranks 8th overall and 7th in batting average, making it a challenging outing for him.

With the Red Sox’s bullpen ranked 4th in MLB, they should be well-equipped to handle any late-game situations. The projections suggest a high implied team total of 4.79 runs for Boston, reflecting confidence in their offensive capabilities against a struggling Pirates lineup. This game presents a significant opportunity for the Red Sox to capitalize on their strengths and continue their push for postseason contention.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Mitch Keller’s slider usage has spiked by 8.6% from last season to this one (25.1% to 33.7%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Oneil Cruz has been unlucky this year, notching a .303 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .353 — a .050 discrepancy.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Henry Davis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Lucas Giolito – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Among all starters, Lucas Giolito’s fastball spin rate of 2238 rpm is in the 20th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Romy Gonzalez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Romy Gonzalez is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Boston Red Sox have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trevor Story, Romy Gonzalez, Carlos Narvaez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-170)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 34 games at home (+10.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 82 of their last 137 games (+22.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Jared Triolo has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.60 Units / 25% ROI)