D-Backs vs Tigers Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Monday July 28, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers host the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 28, 2025, in the first game of a three-game series at Comerica Park. The Tigers, boasting a record of 61-46, are enjoying a solid season and currently sit in a competitive position. In contrast, the Diamondbacks are struggling with a 51-55 record, which places them in below-average territory. Both teams enter this matchup after contrasting performances; the Tigers recently secured a convincing 10-4 victory, while the Diamondbacks fell flat in their last outing, losing 6-0.

Troy Melton takes the mound for the Tigers, marking just his second start this year. Although he has struggled with a 10.80 ERA, the projections suggest he might have been unlucky in his previous outings. He projects to pitch only 4.6 innings today, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs. On the other side, Eduardo Rodriguez is expected to start for the Diamondbacks. With a 5.50 ERA and a solid 4.08 xFIP, he has shown the ability to pitch effectively, symbolized by his last start where he went 6 innings with no earned runs.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 11th in the league, with power numbers that include being 9th in home runs. However, they struggle in batting average, holding steady at 15th. Conversely, the Diamondbacks possess the 4th best offense in MLB, highlighted by a strong capability to hit home runs, ranking 6th in that category.

With the Tigers’ potent offense against Melton’s underwhelming performance, this matchup could tilt in favor of Detroit. The Tigers’ implied team total is set at a strong 4.76 runs, suggesting confidence from the betting markets regarding their ability to score against Rodriguez’s average outing projections.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” today, Eduardo Rodriguez may not stay in the game more than a couple framess since he will function as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (31.5) may lead us to conclude that Eugenio Suarez has had positive variance on his side this year with his 50.3 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected lineup today (.315 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .330 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Troy Melton – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have 6 batters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Troy Melton in this matchup, which is especially troublesome given his large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Wenceel Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Wenceel Perez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games at home (+10.43 Units / 18% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 46 of their last 87 games (+12.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 away games (+6.95 Units / 139% ROI)