D-Backs vs Phillies Picks and Odds – April 11, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Philadelphia Phillies

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Brandon Pfaadt’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (65.9% vs. 53.2% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under Total Bases
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Ildemaro Vargas has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His .333 rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .228.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under Total Bases
  Alek Thomas has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Taijuan Walker’s 2127-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 16th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Alec Bohm is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-135)
  The 5th-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.