D-Backs vs Guardians Game Time – 8/06/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians host the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second game of a double-header on August 7, 2024, both teams are looking to bounce back after the D-Backs edged out a tight 7-6 victory in their previous matchup. This Interleague series not only has playoff implications but features two teams with differing trajectories this season.

The Guardians hold a solid 67-46 record, currently sitting in a favorable position for playoff contention, thanks in part to their 6th-ranked bullpen. However, Carlos Carrasco, projected to start for Cleveland, has struggled this season with a 3-9 record and a concerning 5.53 ERA. His advanced stats reveal some bad luck—his expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) sits at 4.17, suggesting that he could improve given the right circumstances.

In contrast, the Diamondbacks, with a 62-52 record and the 5th best offense in MLB, will send Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound. Rodriguez has been effective, evidenced by his last start on October 1, where he went 7 innings, allowing just 1 earned run—a strong performance that has elevated him to the 56th spot among starting pitchers. His projected stats today show he could allow 2.3 earned runs, which could present a challenge for a Guardians lineup that ranks only 14th in overall offense.

Interestingly, while the betting markets place both teams at -110, the projections favor the Diamondbacks slightly, estimating a better chance for victory. This could reflect their recent form and offensive potency, particularly as Joc Pederson has been on fire, leading the team in production over the last week with a .429 batting average and 3 home runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Eduardo Rodriguez will benefit from facing 7 bats in the projected lineup who bat from the opposite side in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Jake McCarthy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (77% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen projects as the 4th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Carlos Carrasco – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Carlos Carrasco’s 91-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1-mph drop off from last year’s 92-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Austin Hedges – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Austin Hedges’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 87.2-mph mark last year has fallen off to 83.3-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 47 games at home (+13.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 54 games (+17.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+390/-590)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+13.90 Units / 199% ROI)