D-Backs vs Braves Game Time – 6/05/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Atlanta Braves

On June 5, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Truist Park for the third game of their series. The Braves, currently sitting at 27-33, are underperforming for the season. In contrast, the Diamondbacks are just above .500 at 30-31, showing a relatively average performance this year. Both teams come off tight contests, with the Braves losing 2-1 to Arizona in their last game, while the D-Backs celebrated a similar 2-1 victory.

The matchup on the mound features Grant Holmes for the Braves and Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks. Holmes, who has a 3-4 record and a solid 3.78 ERA, is considered below average per advanced stats, ranking 128th among starting pitchers. Despite his decent ERA, Holmes struggles with control, posting a high 10.8 BB%. On the flip side, Pfaadt’s recent struggles are alarming; he was hit hard in his last outing, allowing 8 earned runs over just 0 innings pitched. His overall 5.05 ERA indicates he has been less effective, and advanced projections suggest he may improve, but he remains a liability in this matchup.

Offensively, the Braves rank 17th overall while the Diamondbacks boast the 4th best offense in MLB, significantly outpacing Atlanta in runs and home runs. This offensive disparity, coupled with the Braves’ defensive concerns, gives Arizona a notable edge. The Braves are favored in betting markets with a moneyline of -155, highlighting their potential to capitalize on home-field advantage, but they will need to overcome their inconsistencies to secure a victory. As the game total sits at a high 9.0 runs, expect an exciting contest with plenty of action.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #24 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Pavin Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.6% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 2nd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Grant Holmes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Grant Holmes in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Matt Olson has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-155)
  The 3rd-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+12.10 Units / 32% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+11.05 Units / 23% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+165/-215)
  Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+6.85 Units / 13% ROI)