D-Backs vs Athletics Prediction and Game Breakdown – Sunday August 3, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 3, 2025, both teams are struggling to find their footing this season. The Athletics currently sit at 49-64, while the Diamondbacks are slightly ahead at 52-59. With both teams well outside the playoff picture, this matchup is critical for pride and momentum. Notably, the Athletics’ last game saw them drop a tough contest, emphasizing their need to turn things around.

On the mound, Oakland is projected to start Jack Perkins, a right-handed pitcher who has shown flashes of brilliance despite a challenging season. Perkins has a solid ERA of 2.75, though his 3.82 xFIP indicates he may have benefited from some good luck thus far. His projected performance today suggests he will pitch around 4.1 innings, allowing approximately 2.0 earned runs, which could be problematic if the Athletics’ bullpen, currently ranked 24th in MLB, falters.

Eduardo Rodriguez, the Diamondbacks’ left-handed ace, has had a rough year with a 5.63 ERA and a 3-7 record. However, the projections suggest he may improve, as his xFIP of 4.16 indicates he has faced some bad luck. Rodriguez is expected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing about 2.8 earned runs. His high flyball rate could be concerning against an Athletics offense ranked 7th overall in MLB, known for its power with 152 home runs this season.

Both teams are projected to score around 5.00 runs today, aligning with the high Game Total of 10.0 runs. Given the Athletics’ strong offensive capabilities and Rodriguez’s inconsistencies, Oakland may have the upper hand in this contest.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-110)
  Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Adrian Del Castillo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Adrian Del Castillo has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .332 mark is considerably higher than his .253 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

• Jack Perkins – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jackson Perkins to have a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Max Schuemann – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Max Schuemann is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Luis Urias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  In today’s matchup, Luis Urias is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.6% rate (94th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 81 games (+9.70 Units / 9% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-145)
  Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+5.90 Units / 15% ROI)