D-Backs vs Astros Betting Guide and Expert Picks September 6th, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 6, 2024, both teams are looking to bounce back from tough losses in their last outings. The Astros fell to the Cincinnati Reds in a narrow 1-0 defeat, while the Diamondbacks lost 3-2 to the San Francisco Giants. This matchup marks the beginning of a new series, and the stakes are high as both teams vie for playoff positioning.

The Astros enter this game with a record of 75-65, showcasing an above-average season, while the Diamondbacks sit at 79-62, enjoying a strong campaign. Houston will send elite left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez to the mound, who recently pitched a remarkable 7-inning no-hitter. Valdez comes into this game ranked as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB, with a stellar 3.11 ERA and a solid win-loss record of 13-6 this year. He projects to pitch 6.2 innings today, allowing only 2.1 earned runs on average, which bodes well for the Astros.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks will counter with Brandon Pfaadt, who has had an above-average season, ranked 68th among MLB starters. However, Pfaadt’s 4.32 ERA indicates he may be due for some regression. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings with slightly higher earned runs allowed at 2.8, which could be a vulnerability against a potent Astros lineup.

While the Astros rank 2nd in MLB in team batting average and 11th in overall offensive performance, the Diamondbacks are no slouches either, ranking 2nd in overall offense. However, the projections suggest that Houston is set to score around 4.67 runs today, which is higher than Arizona’s projected total of 3.55 runs.

With the Astros’ strong pitching and a lineup led by Yordan Alvarez, who has been their best hitter this season, they are positioned as significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -170. According to the leading MLB projection system, Houston’s chances of winning exceed what the current odds suggest, indicating potential value for bettors looking to back the Astros in this pivotal matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+120)
  Brandon Pfaadt has recorded 17.8 outs per GS this year, checking in at the 91st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Framber Valdez has utilized his curveball 6.2% more often this season (30.6%) than he did last season (24.4%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jon Singleton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Jon Singleton has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph dropping to 81.1-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-165)
  The Houston Astros projected batting order ranks as the 4th-best on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 130 games (+15.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 81 games (+27.15 Units / 30% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2200)
  Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 22 games (+44.00 Units / 200% ROI)