Current Player Trends for Brewers vs Pirates – Sunday September 07, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On September 7, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Milwaukee Brewers at PNC Park for the third game of their series. The Pirates are struggling this season with a record of 64-79, while the Brewers are in contention with a strong 88-55 record. In their last matchup, the Pirates fell to the Brewers by a score of 4-1, further highlighting the disparity between these two teams.

The Pirates are projected to start Bubba Chandler, who has had a mixed season. Despite boasting a solid ERA of 2.25, Chandler’s advanced stats suggest he might have been a bit fortunate, as his xFIP sits at 3.67. He has only started one game this year, with a Win/Loss record of 2-0, but his projections indicate he may struggle today, averaging just 4.8 innings pitched and allowing 2.4 earned runs. The Pirates offense ranks 29th in the league, making it difficult for Chandler to find run support.

On the other hand, the Brewers will send out Jacob Misiorowski, who has been more reliable this season with a 4.50 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 4-2. His xFIP of 3.11 suggests he has been a bit unlucky, and he projects to allow only 1.9 earned runs today. The Brewers’ offense ranks 10th overall and 2nd in batting average, providing Misiorowski with a solid cushion.

With the Pirates’ offensive struggles and the Brewers’ strong form, including their recent victory, the Brewers appear to have the upper hand in this matchup. The projections favor the Brewers, who should capitalize on their offensive strengths against a pitcher like Chandler, who might find it hard to keep pace.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  With 6 bats who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected offense, Jacob Misiorowski ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under Total Bases
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Christian Yelich can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (+130)
  Out of every team today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Tommy Pham is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Milwaukee (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 85 of their last 141 games (+23.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-150)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 100 games (+31.65 Units / 24% ROI)
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)
  Sal Frelick has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.55 Units / 46% ROI)