Cubs vs White Sox Prediction and Game Breakdown - Sunday May 17, 2026

-135O/U: 9
(-110/-110)+115

Colin Rea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Colin Rea has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 5% more often this season (52.7%) than he did last year (47.7%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Ian Happ – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
Ian Happ has made big strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 10.1% rate last year to 17.3% this season.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Erick Fedde – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
Placing in the 2nd percentile, Erick Fedde compiled a 7.2% Swinging Strike rate since the start of last season.
Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
Edgar Quero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
Edgar Quero’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 90.6-mph figure last year has dropped off to 86.1-mph.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
Colson Montgomery pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.15 Units / 28% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-135)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.90 Units / 19% ROI)
Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+170/-225)
Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+12.40 Units / 22% ROI)

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