Cubs vs White Sox Prediction and Game Breakdown – Sunday May 17, 2026

Chicago Cubs

@

Chicago White Sox

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Colin Rea has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 5% more often this season (52.7%) than he did last year (47.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Ian Happ has made big strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 10.1% rate last year to 17.9% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Placing in the 2nd percentile, Erick Fedde compiled a 7.2% Swinging Strike rate since the start of last season.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  From last season to this one, Colson Montgomery’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 96.7 mph to 94.5 mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Colson Montgomery pulls many of his flyballs (39.4% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.