Cubs vs Twins Picks and Odds – July 09, 2025

Chicago Cubs

@

Minnesota Twins

On July 9, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Chicago Cubs at Target Field in what promises to be an electrifying interleague matchup. The Twins dropped yesterday’s game against the Cubs, and as they continue to struggle this season with a 44-47 record, they find themselves in a tough spot against the Cubs, who are thriving with a 54-37 record and rank as the 3rd best offense in MLB.

The spotlight will be on the Twins’ David Festa, projected to start for this game. Despite being ranked as the 87th best starting pitcher, Festa has had a rough season with a 5.48 ERA. His advanced metrics suggest he could be better than his numbers indicate, but he’s projected to struggle against a powerful Cubs lineup that has hit 137 home runs this year. Festa is a high-flyball pitcher, which could spell trouble against a team that excels in turning flyballs into home runs.

Cade Horton will take the mound for the Cubs, and while he’s had a mixed season, his 4.15 ERA is above average. The projections suggest he could also face challenges, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs and 4.8 hits per outing. However, the strength of the Cubs’ offense, which also ranks 5th in batting average, gives them a significant edge.

Betting markets have set the moneyline at -110 for both teams, indicating a highly competitive game. However, with the Twins’ below-average offense ranked 20th in MLB and struggling to capitalize on opportunities, this matchup appears to favor the Cubs. The projections suggest that the Cubs should outperform their implied team total of 4.50 runs, making them the team to watch in this contest.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)
  Among every team playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• David Festa – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Considering that flyball pitchers have a substantial edge over flyball batters, David Festa and his 34.1% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in this game going up against 2 opposing FB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Harrison Bader has been hot recently, whalloping 4 long-balls in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
• Minnesota’s 92-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #24 squad in Major League Baseball this year by this metric.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.