Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
(-120/+100)-125
In a critical matchup in the National League Central, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Chicago Cubs on July 29, 2025, following an 8-4 victory for the Brewers in their last encounter just one day earlier. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Brewers sitting at 63-43 and the Cubs at 62-44, making this a pivotal game in their tight race.
On the mound, the Brewers will send out Quinn Priester, who has been having a solid year with a 9-2 record and an impressive 3.28 ERA. Priester’s ability to generate ground balls (57% groundball rate) could play a crucial role against the Cubs’ power-laden offense, which ranks 3rd in MLB with 155 home runs. Despite being ranked as the #77 best starting pitcher in MLB, Priester’s underlying metrics suggest he may be due for some regression. However, his last outing was stellar, going 7 innings with just 2 earned runs and 6 strikeouts.
Meanwhile, Colin Rea will take the hill for the Cubs, struggling with a 4.06 ERA. Rea’s last performance was less than stellar; he allowed 5 earned runs over 5 innings in a recent start. With a FIP of 4.96, Rea has also faced challenges limiting damage, making him vulnerable against a Brewers lineup ranked 17th in overall offensive production yet showing flashes of potential.
The current betting odds favor the Brewers with a moneyline of -130, reflecting a 54% implied probability of winning. Given both teams’ offensive capabilities and Priester’s advantages against Rea, this matchup is expected to be closely contested, making it an intriguing choice for sports bettors. The total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a balanced expectation for scoring.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Colin Rea – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Colin Rea is expected to wring up 3.7 strikeouts in today’s matchup.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Quinn Priester – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Given the 0.33 deviation between Quinn Priester’s 7.61 K/9 and his 7.28 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game this year when it comes to strikeouts and should see negative regression going forward.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)Against the weak defense of Chicago’s 2nd-worst infield of all teams today), Sal Frelick has a very favorable matchup given his extreme groundball tendencies.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-125)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 58 games (+20.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 58 of their last 99 games (+9.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.20 Units / 27% ROI)