Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Guardians vs Pirates – April 20, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Cleveland Guardians at PNC Park on April 20, 2025, both teams are looking to turn the tide in their respective seasons. The Guardians are riding high after a solid victory yesterday, blanking the Pirates 3-0, while Pittsburgh continues to struggle with an 8-14 record, placing them at the bottom of their division. This matchup marks the third game in their series, and the stakes are high for the Pirates, who are desperate to find their footing.

Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller is projected to start, bringing a mixed bag of statistics to the mound. Despite being ranked as the 181st best starting pitcher in MLB, Keller has an average ERA of 4.30. However, his 5.77 xERA suggests he may have been lucky so far this season, indicating potential struggles ahead. On the other hand, Cleveland’s Logan Allen has been impressive with a 2.30 ERA and a solid outing in his last start, where he pitched six innings without allowing a run.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 28th in MLB, showcasing one of the worst offenses this season. They have struggled to produce runs, while the Guardians, ranking 15th, have managed a more balanced attack. The Guardians boast a strong power presence, ranking 9th in home runs, which could pose a significant threat to Keller, especially considering his tendency to allow hits.

With the current moneyline favoring the Pirates at -120 and an average implied team total of 4.10 runs, betting markets suggest a close contest. However, given the Guardians’ recent performance and Keller’s inconsistent pitching, this game could tilt in favor of Cleveland.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Logan Allen is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #26 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Nolan Jones has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last season’s 88.3-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen projects as the best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Mitch Keller’s slider usage has risen by 8.8% from last year to this one (25.1% to 33.9%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  In today’s matchup, Andrew McCutchen is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34% rate (81st percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-135)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.15 Units / 42% ROI)