Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
(-110/-110)+100
On June 9, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Petco Park for the first game of their series. Both teams are currently enjoying solid seasons, with the Padres sitting at 37-27 and the Dodgers slightly ahead at 39-27. This matchup features two competitive squads vying for crucial wins as they look to solidify their standings in the National League West.
Nick Pivetta, projected to take the mound for the Padres, has been effective this season, sporting a 6-2 record and a commendable 3.16 ERA. However, his 4.4 hits allowed per game and 1.8 walks projected today suggest he may struggle against a powerful Dodgers lineup, which ranks 2nd in MLB with 102 home runs this season. Meanwhile, Dustin May, at 3-4 with a 4.09 ERA, will look to capitalize on the Padres’ offensive weaknesses as he aims to guide the Dodgers to victory.
The projections highlight the Padres’ bullpen as the 3rd best in MLB, which could provide them with a strategic edge late in the game. Their offense, however, ranks only 22nd, raising concerns about their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. In contrast, the Dodgers boast the league’s 2nd best offense, underscoring their capability to put runs on the board.
Interestingly, in their last outing, the Padres’ best hitter recorded an impressive 1.166 OPS over the last week, which may boost their chances. Given the strength of the Dodgers’ offense against Pivetta’s flyball tendencies, oddsmakers have set the game total at 8.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive matchup. With both teams eager to gain an edge, this series opener promises to be a thrilling contest in the National League West.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)Dustin May is an extreme groundball pitcher (46.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Petco Park — the #9 HR venue among all stadiums — today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)In the last two weeks, Tommy Edman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.6% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Max Muncy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.1% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Nick Pivetta’s slider percentage has dropped by 9.4% from last season to this one (29.2% to 19.8%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 87.9-mph figure last season has dropped off to 85.2-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 18.5% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 46 games (+9.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games (+5.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-130/+100)Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 34% ROI)