Check the Weather for Blue Jays vs Astros Game – 4/22/2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros host the Toronto Blue Jays on April 22, 2025, after both teams faced off yesterday, with the Astros shutting out the Blue Jays 7-0. Currently, the Astros sit at 11-11, while the Blue Jays hold a slightly better record at 12-11. This matchup is crucial as both teams are looking to improve their standings in a competitive American League.

Projected starters Ronel Blanco and Chris Bassitt present an intriguing contrast. Blanco, ranked as the 182nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has struggled this season with a 6.48 ERA and a 1-2 record. However, projections suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP of 4.69 indicates he could perform better moving forward. In contrast, Bassitt has been stellar, boasting a 0.77 ERA and an undefeated record of 2-0. Despite this, his xFIP of 2.25 suggests he may have benefitted from some luck.

Offensively, the Astros have struggled, ranking 24th in MLB in both team runs and home runs, while their best hitter has only recorded three home runs this season. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, rank 20th in runs scored and have been particularly lackluster in power, sitting 29th in home runs. However, their best hitter is performing well, with a .316 batting average and a 1.097 OPS over the last week.

With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs and the Astros’ moneyline at +105, there is an expectation of a close contest. The Astros may find an edge in Blanco’s flyball tendencies against a Blue Jays lineup that has struggled to capitalize on power this season. As both teams look to bounce back, the Astros will aim to build momentum after yesterday’s decisive victory.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Chris Bassitt’s 90.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.9-mph fall off from last season’s 92.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• George Springer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  George Springer has made significant strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 9.3% rate last season to 18.2% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (16.5 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-prone batting order of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Ronel Blanco (37.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 4 GB hitters in Toronto’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-210/+160)
  Yainer Diaz’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 93.5-mph mark last season has decreased to 88.6-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Houston’s 90.4-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #30 group of hitters in MLB this year by this metric.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+7.90 Units / 43% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.25 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+195/-265)
  Jeremy Pena has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 41% ROI)