Check the Weather for Blue Jays vs Astros Game – 4/22/2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on April 22, 2025, both teams are seeking to improve their standings in a tightly contested American League matchup. The Astros are currently sitting at .500 with an 11-11 record, while the Blue Jays boast a slight edge at 12-11, putting them in an above-average position this season. The stakes are especially high as the Blue Jays edged out the Astros in yesterday’s series opener, which adds an additional layer of urgency for Houston.

On the mound, Ronel Blanco is set to start for the Astros. Despite being ranked 183rd among MLB starters, Blanco has shown signs of potential with a 4.70 xFIP, suggesting he may be due for better results than his troubling 6.48 ERA. However, his performance has been inconsistent, particularly with his high walk rate, which stands at an unacceptable average of 1.9 walks per game. Conversely, Chris Bassitt takes the hill for the Blue Jays, having established himself as a reliable pitcher with a stellar 0.77 ERA this season, placing him 82nd among MLB starters. Bassitt’s xFIP of 2.25 indicates he might be a little fortunate, but he still projects to pitch well against a struggling Astros offense.

While Houston’s offense ranks 25th in the league, the Blue Jays find themselves in a more favorable 16th position, particularly excelling in batting average ranked 4th in MLB. With a commanding 8.0 run total set for the game, expect a competitive atmosphere at Minute Maid Park. The projections lean slightly in favor of the Blue Jays, but the Astros will be eager to capitalize on home-field advantage and even the series.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Chris Bassitt’s 90.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.9-mph fall off from last season’s 92.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• George Springer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  George Springer has made significant strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 9.3% rate last season to 18.2% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (17.6 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-prone batting order of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Ronel Blanco (37.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 3 GB hitters in Toronto’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Yainer Diaz’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 93.5-mph mark last season has decreased to 88.6-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Houston’s 90.4-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #30 group of hitters in MLB this year by this metric.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+7.90 Units / 43% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.25 Units / 22% ROI)