Check the Rankings and Game Forecast: Pirates vs Twins Analysis – 7/13/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Target Field on July 13, 2025, both teams find themselves in the midst of disappointing seasons. The Twins are sitting at 47-48, while the Pirates languish with a 38-58 record. The Pirates managed to avoid a sweep yesterday, breaking a losing streak with an impressive comeback victory over Minnesota.

In today’s matchup, the Twins are projected to start Simeon Woods Richardson, the #152 best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, who carries a 5-4 record and a 4.08 ERA. Woods Richardson has had a knack for allowing runs, projecting to give up an average of 2.7 earned runs over 5.0 innings today. Facing him is Mitch Keller, who has a better ERA of 3.58, despite his poor 3-10 record. Keller’s strong strikeout ability, combined with a low walk rate, gives him an edge against a Twins offense that ranks 21st overall in MLB this season.

Though both offenses are struggling, the Pirates particularly stand out with a 29th ranking in terms of overall production. They have the fewest home runs in MLB, which could play to Woods Richardson’s advantage as a flyball pitcher. Meanwhile, the Twins’ bats have shown limited power, ranking only 12th in home runs, so runs may be at a premium.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, it’s expected to be a competitive contest. The Twins have a high implied team total of 4.76 runs, indicating that oddsmakers see potential in their lineup despite the discrepancies in performance. The Twins’ solid bullpen, ranked 10th in MLB, might also play a crucial role in securing a win against a struggling Pirates team.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Mitch Keller’s slider utilization has increased by 9.5% from last year to this one (25.1% to 34.6%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Simeon Woods Richard.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Andrew McCutchen hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 86th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  In his previous outing, Simeon Woods Richardson was in good form and gave up 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Brooks Lee has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Minnesota Twins have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 17° figure is among the highest in Major League Baseball this year (#2 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 89 games (+10.30 Units / 10% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 83 games (+18.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.75 Units / 24% ROI)