Check the Injuries Update for Twins vs Blue Jays – 8/25/2025

Minnesota Twins

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Toronto Blue Jays

On August 25, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Minnesota Twins at Rogers Centre in Toronto for the opening game of their series. The Blue Jays currently sit at 76-55, enjoying a strong season, while the Twins are struggling with a record of 59-71. Toronto’s impressive standing is bolstered by an offensive unit that ranks 3rd in MLB, showcasing their ability to generate runs and create scoring opportunities.

In their last game, the Blue Jays faced a setback, losing 5-3, while the Twins were shut out 8-0, highlighting their recent struggles. The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Max Scherzer of the Blue Jays and Joe Ryan of the Twins. Scherzer, ranked 55th among starting pitchers according to the leading MLB projection system, has had a solid season with a 4-2 record and a respectable ERA of 3.60. However, his 4.48 xFIP indicates he may be due for some regression. In contrast, Joe Ryan has excelled this season, boasting an elite ranking of 15th among pitchers with a 12-6 record and an outstanding 2.77 ERA, although his xFIP suggests he too may have benefited from some good fortune.

The Blue Jays are favored in this matchup, with a high implied team total of 4.31 runs based on current betting odds. The projections indicate that despite Scherzer’s potential vulnerabilities, the Blue Jays’ potent offense should capitalize against a Twins lineup that has struggled, ranking 22nd in MLB. Given the disparity in performance and the current trends, Toronto stands as the team to watch in this opening series clash.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Joe Ryan’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (63.2 vs. 54.4% last year) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Kody Clemens’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 91.3-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 75.7-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Minnesota Twins have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Byron Buxton, Edouard Julien, James Outman, Matt Wallner).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-145)
  Among all the teams today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Typically, batters like Daulton Varsho who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Joe Ryan.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-145)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 77 games (+19.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 62 away games (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1600)
  Brooks Lee has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+10.70 Units / 153% ROI)