Check the Injuries Update for Rays vs Orioles – 6/27/2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Rays on June 27, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum in this American League East matchup. The Rays are enjoying a solid season with a record of 46-35, while the Orioles are struggling at 34-46. In their last outing, the Orioles were blanked 7-0, continuing their rough stretch, while the Rays secured a 4-0 victory.

On the mound, the Orioles will send out Tomoyuki Sugano, who has had an inconsistent year. With a Power Rankings position of #270 among approximately 350 pitchers, Sugano has been one of the less effective starters in the league. His ERA of 3.55 is decent, but his 4.51 xFIP suggests he may not be as fortunate going forward. In his last start on June 20, he struggled, going just 4 innings while allowing 3 earned runs.

On the other side, Ryan Pepiot of the Rays has been a bright spot for Tampa, ranking #60 in Power Rankings. His ERA of 3.04 is impressive, and he pitched well in his last outing, going 5 innings with only 1 earned run. Although Pepiot’s projections indicate he might allow 2.7 earned runs today, he has shown the ability to limit damage effectively.

The Orioles’ offense ranks 24th in MLB, which is concerning against a Rays team boasting the 7th best offense overall. The projections favor the Rays, who are expected to score around 4.71 runs, while the Orioles have a high implied team total of 4.29 runs. With the game total set at 9.0 runs, it could be a high-scoring affair, but the Orioles will need a strong performance from Sugano to keep pace with the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Ryan Pepiot in the 85th percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Brandon Lowe has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92-mph average to last year’s 89.8-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• As a team, Tampa Bay Rays hitters have done poorly when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (between 23° and 34°), rating 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Cedric Mullins tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games (+10.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 35% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-140/+110)
  Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.15 Units / 28% ROI)