Check the Injuries Update for Phillies vs Rangers – 8/9/2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Texas Rangers

As the Philadelphia Phillies visit Globe Life Field on August 9, 2025, they look to build on their solid season, currently holding a record of 66-49. The Texas Rangers, with a record of 60-57, are having an average year and are in a crucial stretch as they aim to stay competitive. In their last game, the Phillies fell to the Rangers, who are looking to capitalize on this matchup as they face off for the second time in the series.

On the mound, Jacob deGrom is projected to start for the Rangers. He boasts a strong 10-4 record and an impressive ERA of 2.80, ranking him as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. However, his 3.32 xFIP suggests that he may have been a bit fortunate this season, and he projects to allow an average of 2.1 earned runs over 5.4 innings today. In contrast, Jesus Luzardo will take the hill for the Phillies. With a record of 10-5 and an ERA of 4.32, Luzardo ranks 39th among starting pitchers. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, which is slightly above average.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 8th in MLB, showcasing a potent lineup with a .275 batting average, while the Rangers struggle, ranking 27th with a .235 average. This disparity in offensive capability could be a significant factor in today’s game, especially given that the Rangers’ bullpen is rated 16th, while the Phillies’ ranks 24th, hinting at potential late-game advantages for the Rangers.

With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, the betting markets indicate a close contest, but the Rangers’ ability to exploit Luzardo’s inconsistencies, coupled with deGrom’s strong performance, could lead to a favorable outcome for Texas.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Compared to league average, Jesus Luzardo has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an additional 6.5 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  J.T. Realmuto’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 94.4-mph EV last year has decreased to 91.4-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Jacob deGrom has experienced some negative variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting a 9.44 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.51 — a 1.07 K/9 disparity.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Marcus Semien is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#2-worst of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Jonah Heim hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Run Line -1.5 (+165)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 51 games at home (+12.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 32 away games (+12.60 Units / 33% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+195/-260)
  Brandon Marsh has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+5.90 Units / 24% ROI)