Philadelphia Phillies
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-120/+100)+110
As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 21, 2025, this matchup carries significant weight for both teams. Currently, the Diamondbacks sit at 78-77, having played well enough to remain competitive but not quite in contention for a division title. Meanwhile, the Phillies are enjoying a strong season with a record of 92-63, firmly in the playoff picture.
In their last encounter, the Diamondbacks edged the Phillies 4-3, a result that could inject some much-needed confidence into Arizona as they look to continue their momentum. The Diamondbacks’ offense has been impressive this season, ranking 5th in MLB, and they will seek to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Chase Field.
On the mound, Arizona will send Eduardo Rodriguez to the hill, who has struggled with a 5.12 ERA this year, ranking him as the 126th best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite his below-average performance, advanced projections suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP stands at a more favorable 4.47. Rodriguez is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.6 hits and 1.8 walks per outing could be problematic against a potent Phillies lineup.
The Phillies counter with Ranger Suarez, who has been a standout pitcher this season, boasting a 2.84 ERA and ranking 18th in MLB. However, projections indicate that he may regress slightly, as his xFIP of 3.63 suggests he has been a bit fortunate. Suarez is projected to pitch 5.6 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs, but he may face challenges with his own hit and walk projections.
With a game total set at 8.5 runs and both teams having potent offenses, this matchup promises to be an engaging battle. The Diamondbacks’ moneyline is currently +110, reflecting their status as underdogs, while the Phillies are favored at -130. As this series unfolds, both teams will be keen to assert themselves, making this an intriguing contest for fans and bettors alike.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Ranger Suarez’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (57.4% compared to 49.1% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Harrison Bader – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Despite posting a .357 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Harrison Bader has had positive variance on his side given the .048 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .309.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)In today’s game, Kyle Schwarber is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.6% rate (99th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+110)Among every team in action today, the best infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected lineup today (.315 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .328 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 72 of their last 138 games (+19.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 75 away games (+19.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.10 Units / 22% ROI)