Check the Injuries Update for Giants vs Athletics – 7/4/2025

San Francisco Giants

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Athletics

As the struggling Oakland Athletics prepare to face off against the San Francisco Giants on July 4, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. With a record of 36-53, the Athletics are having a tough season, while the Giants, at 47-41, are looking to maintain their above-average performance. Notably, the Athletics’ recent gameplay has been underwhelming, failing to build on momentum in their last outing where they fell short against a division rival.

In this Interleague matchup at Sutter Health Park, the Athletics will send left-hander JP Sears to the mound, who is projected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings while allowing approximately 2.8 earned runs. Although Sears holds a Win/Loss record of 6-7 and an ERA of 5.09, the projections suggest he may have been unlucky this season, hinting at potential improvement. Facing Sears, the Giants will counter with right-hander Justin Verlander, whose performance has been inconsistent this year, yielding an average of 3.0 earned runs across similar innings but holding a concerning 0-5 record.

While the Athletics offense ranks as the 13th best in MLB, they have shown notable power, ranking 9th in home runs. Conversely, the Giants’ offense is struggling, ranked 24th overall, including a dismal 25th in batting average and home runs, which may bode well for Sears against a lineup that lacks power. The Athletics boast a top-tier bullpen, ranked 1st overall, which could be instrumental if the game is close late.

With the Game Total set at a high 10.0 runs, both teams have high implied team totals of 5.00 runs. Given their respective recent form and the overall matchups, Oakland’s chances might be better than the odds suggest, offering a compelling betting angle for those looking to support the Athletics at home.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Justin Verlander’s 2428-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 84th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  There has been a decrease in Tyler Fitzgerald’s average exit velocity this year, from 87.4 mph last year to 84.1 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Luis Matos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Luis Matos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Considering that flyball batters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, JP Sears (41.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Extreme groundball batters like Brent Rooker are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Justin Verlander.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-most strikeout-prone lineup today is the Athletics with a 26.7% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games (+5.92 Units / 10% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 58 games (+9.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Shea Langeliers – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+310/-450)
  Shea Langeliers has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+9.30 Units / 116% ROI)